Is it too early to think about President Obama’s legacy? The pollsters don’t think so. The upcoming January issue of AEI’s Political Report compiles some of their early assessments. We find opinion of Obama in general and with respect to specific issues more negative than positive, although it is heavily influenced by partisan affiliation.
When the McClatchy-Marist poll asked people earlier this year how President Obama would be remembered when he finished his second term, around a third said he would be remembered as one of the best presidents in US history or above average. Thirty-eight percent expressed opinions at the other end of the scale, saying they thought he would be remembered as below average or one of the worst presidents. As is the case with most survey questions about Obama these days, these responses reflect strong partisan differences. Forty-eight percent of Republicans said he would be regarded as one of the worst presidents and another 26 percent as below average.
When the Pew Research Center updated a question that Gallup previously asked about other presidents, 44 percent said the Obama administration’s accomplishments would outweigh its failures, while 50 percent felt the opposite. In comparison, more people said the Bush administration would be defined by its failures, whereas for the Clinton administration more people said it would be defined by its accomplishments.
Overall, Obama’s disapproval rating has been higher than his approval rating for almost all of the past two years in CNN/Opinion Research Corporation polls. Nationally, his approval ratings hover around 45 percent. This middling overall rating derives from assessments of Obama’s handling of two core issues: foreign policy and the economy. Americans initially liked Obama’s efforts to pull the US back from hot spots around the globe. But they don’t appear to like the results. His ratings on handling foreign affairs and terrorism have declined sharply since his presidency began. Fifty-eight percent in a recent Pew Research Center survey said his approach to foreign policy and national security issues was not tough enough, and around a third (34 percent) said it was about right. In June 2009, however, those responses were nearly flipped, with 38 percent saying not tough enough and 51 percent about right.
Opinion of Obama’s handling of the economy has been consistently low. In Gallup’s latest poll, 54 percent disapproved. That response has been more negative than positive in all of Gallup’s polls since September 2009. In July 2015, 42 percent of registered voters told Fox News pollsters that Obama’s administration had made the economy better, but slightly more, 47 percent, said its action had made things worse. People recognize that Obama inherited dire economic conditions. While they continue to blame Bush more than Obama for the economy’s weaknesses, they have yet to credit Obama in any significant way for its recovery.
And what about views on what some call his signature achievement, the Affordable Care Act? Though close, opinion of the law has been more unfavorable than favorable in most of the monthly Kaiser Family Foundation’s surveys taken since the law’s passage in 2010. Obama’s handling of health care has been more negative than positive for more than two years. Still, it is not clear what Americans want Congress to do with the law now. Twenty-two percent in a December Kaiser poll wanted to expand what the law does, while 35 percent wanted to repeal it entirely. Eighteen percent wanted to proceed with implementation as is and 14 percent scale it back.
As for race relations, blacks were initially hopeful. Nearly half said in January 2009 that his election would be the start of a new era of better race relations, and 32 percent said it would result in some improvement. Just 14 percent said his presidency would create no real change. In a June 2015 poll, however, blacks were divided about what has happened to race relations since Obama’s initial election. A third said race relations were better, 35 percent worse, and 32 percent said they had stayed the same. Still, a large majority of blacks (84 percent) currently approve of the way he is handling race relations, down about 10 points from the summer of 2009.
As the first African-American president, President Obama’s place in history is secure. But a year of unpredictable politics ahead and his mediocre poll numbers now suggest that Obama’s legacy is still a work in progress.
